How to Make a $50M Office Call Without Losing Sleep
You’re in a conference room. The CFO is across the table. The CEO is on video. HR sent someone. Legal has questions. The board wants an update by end of quarter.
And you’re the one who has to stand up and say: “This is the building. This is the deal. This is what I recommend.”
The total commitment; rent, buildout, moving costs, technology, furniture, downtime adds up to north of $50 million over the life of the lease. Maybe significantly north.
The question running through your mind isn’t about the square footage or the rental rate. It’s simpler: Do I have enough information to make this call?
Why This Decision Feels Different
Most corporate decisions are reversible. Wrong vendor? Switch next quarter. Bad product feature? Patch it.
A commercial office lease isn’t like that. A 10-year commitment on 150,000 SF locks in your location identity, your financial exposure, and your operational infrastructure. There’s no pilot program. You can’t lease 10,000 SF on a trial basis. You’re all in from day one.
The anxiety is rational. The problem isn’t overthinking. The problem is that the standard process doesn’t give you enough structure to think through it clearly.
Information vs. Confidence
The executives who struggle most aren’t the ones who lack information. They’re the ones who have plenty of information but no framework for turning it into conviction.
They’ve toured 12 buildings. They have a spreadsheet comparing effective rents across 8 options. They’ve read the market reports. They’ve talked to their workplace strategist.
And they’re still stuck.
Information without a decision framework is just noise. More data doesn’t automatically produce more clarity. Sometimes it produces the opposite — analytical paralysis where every new data point opens a question instead of closing one.
The fix isn’t more information. It’s a better process for organizing what you already know into a recommendation you can defend.
The Five Layers of a High-Confidence Lease Decision
Layer 1: Organizational Alignment
Before you evaluate a single building, you need internal consensus on what the space is supposed to do.
Transactions can stall for months because the CEO wanted a flagship presence, finance wanted the lowest cost, and HR wanted proximity to a talent pool that didn’t overlap with either priority. Nobody was wrong. Nobody had forced the conversation about which priority wins when they conflict.
Get decision-makers in a room and answer three questions: What is the primary purpose of this space? What does headcount honestly look like in 3, 5, and 10 years, including the downside? And what are the non-negotiables vs. the nice-to-haves?
If everything is a priority, nothing is. This layer saves enormous time downstream.
Layer 2: Market Intelligence
Once you know what you’re solving for, go deeper than asking rents and available SF.
The data that matters: effective rent comparisons normalized for free rent, TI allowances, and escalation structures. Landlord financial health — a great lease in a building headed for receivership is a problem, not an opportunity, and this matters more in 2026 than it has in a generation. Competitive positioning relative to your talent competitors. And shadow space, leased but unoccupied inventory that represents both opportunity and risk.
Your broker should deliver this proactively. If you’re doing this work yourself, something is broken in the advisory relationship.
Layer 3: Financial Modeling Under Uncertainty
This is where most CRE executives feel most exposed. Not because they can’t read a spreadsheet, but because the spreadsheet gives the illusion of precision for what is fundamentally a decision under uncertainty.
A 10-year lease model has dozens of assumptions. Change any three by modest amounts and the “best deal” becomes the second or third best deal.
The solution: model the uncertainty explicitly. Run three scenarios across every finalist:
Base case: your expected assumptions. Downside case: headcount contracts 20%, you need to sublease, the market softens 30%. What’s your total exposure? Upside case: growth accelerates 30%, you need expansion space in 36 months. Is it available? Do you have the contractual right to it?
The option that performs best in the base case isn’t always the right choice. Sometimes the right choice performs well enough in the base case but doesn’t expose you to catastrophic outcomes in the downside. That’s a judgment call, but an informed one.
Layer 4: Structural Flexibility
The single most valuable thing you can negotiate in an office lease isn’t the rental rate. It’s optionality.
The mechanisms that matter: expansion rights with pre-negotiated economics (not just a right of first refusal, which gives you no cost certainty). Contraction rights; landlords hate these, they’re worth fighting for. Early termination options at year 5 or 7 with a defined penalty. And unrestricted sublease rights with minimal landlord approval.
These provisions aren’t free. Landlords price them in. But when you model the downside scenario with and without these provisions, the math almost always favors buying the flexibility.
Layer 5: Presentation Architecture
You can nail Layers 1 through 4 and still lose the room if you present poorly.
The structure that works: Start with the criteria, not the options. Anchor the conversation in organizational priorities before showing buildings. Present 3 options, recommend 1 not 5, not 8. More than three means you’re asking leadership to do your job. Show the downside before the CFO asks about it. And make the ask explicit: “I recommend Option B for the following reasons.” Not “here are the options for your consideration.”
CRE executives who present without a recommendation get treated like analysts. The ones who recommend and defend get treated like leaders.
The Courage to Recommend
No amount of data eliminates the risk. At some point, you make a judgment call based on imperfect information. That’s not a failure of process. That’s the job.
The goal isn’t to be right with certainty. It’s to be right in your process — because a good process, applied consistently, produces good outcomes over time.
If you’ve got a major lease decision ahead, the most important thing you can do right now isn’t to tour buildings. It’s to get aligned internally on what you’re solving for. Start with Layer 1. Everything else follows from that.
Coy Davidson is a Senior Vice President at Colliers in Houston, representing occupiers of office and healthcare properties in lease negotiations, site selection, and portfolio strategy.
